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Good analysis; one note I’d make is that I’d assume western intelligence has tried to do some seismic mapping of the site by sneaking recording equipment nearby. No telling how accurate that would be, but they might have a rough idea what they’re up against. His analysis holds true, though, even with that note.
As he notes, even if they know the structure, there’s not much they can do about it. If the bomb doesn’t hit square on then it’s not going to deliver the shaped charge in the right direction. Since they almost certainly would’ve used a composite material, it ensures that the bomb can’t just penetrate in a straight line.
